12.15经济学人外刊精读移民问题

Immigration
Desperate measures

migrants crossing the Channel are both a humanitarian issue and a political one

【1】ON NOVEMBER 24TH an inflatable dinghy capsized off the coast of Calais, France. At least 27 people drowned; a few others were picked up by the French coastguard. They had been trying to get to Britain via an increasingly popular but perilous route. After years of effort by the authorities to stop migrants arriving from the continent stowed away in lorries, rising numbers have turned to small boats. On November 11th the total arriving on the Kent coast hit 1,185, a daily record.

【2】The deaths turned a political row into a tragedy. In recent weeks the crossings had become the government’s biggest headache. MPs say that, even as Parliament is consumed with scandal about second jobs, contacts by constituents concerned about immigration in small boats outnumber those about sleaze. Nearly 60% of Conservative voters say that immigration or asylum is one of the top three issues facing the country, and nearly 80% that the government is handling it poorly.

【3】The drownings highlighted the human cost of what had up until then been discussed in terms of crude electoral calculus. The prime minister, Boris Johnson, who campaigned to leave the EU on a pledge to “take back control”—including of Britain’s borders—feared being outflanked on his right by a resurgent anti-immigration movement. Nick Thomas-Symonds, Labour’s shadow home secretary, called the drownings the “most poignant of wake-up calls” for the government.

【4】The previous week Mr Johnson ordered a review aimed at stopping small boats from attempting the crossing. But this is easier said than done. In the run-up to the 2019 election Priti Patel, the home secretary, said she would halve the number of migrants arriving by that route; instead it has increased nearly 14-fold. migrants set out in the face of extreme risks, and for reasons that no destination country can control, such as war and famine. aid, which donors hope may keep recipients at home, can instead give them the means to leave.

【5】Many in Calais’s camps want to go to Britain to join family members, says Frances Timberlake of the Refugee Women’s Centre, an aid organisation. Others want to move on because of poor conditions. The European Council on Refugees and Exiles, an NGO network, estimates that fewer than half of applicants for asylum in France in 2019 were provided with housing.

【6】Those migrants who make it to Britain’s shores have the right to seek asylum. As an EU member Britain could invoke the Dublin Convention, a deal struck in 2013 that requires claims to be made in the EU country of first arrival. In fact, returning those who moved on proved difficult. But in any case, Britain is no longer covered.

【7】Many of the migrants who crossed the Channel this year are likely to qualify for asylum. According to the Refugee Council, a charity, arrivals by boat tend to originate in countries with high approval rates. Between January 2020 and May 2021, Iranians were the biggest group. Their approval rate before appeal is 67%, compared with 52% for all nationalities. For Syrians, the fourth-biggest group, it is 88%.

【8】Since the Brexit referendum voters have become less concerned about immigrants arriving for work or to join family. But 56% have an unfavourable view of those who enter illegally. Other routes are, however, largely closed. Britain has no humanitarian-visa scheme for asylum-seekers. A plan announced in August to resettle Afghans who worked for Western countries and agencies has yet to get off the ground.

【9】Ms Patel has considered using Britain’s border force to push boats back into French waters. But that may be illegal under maritime law. Another idea is to hold asylum-seekers offshore while their claims are processed. The Home Office says that it is in talks with Albania’s government—a claim its prime minister has denied.

【10】The centrepiece of Ms Patel’s plans is a draft nationality and borders bill, which Mr Johnson declared was all the more urgent after the latest tragedy. It would create a two-tier system, with arrivals through informal routes granted less time to stay and denied opportunities for family reunification. It has faced sharp criticism. According to a legal opinion commissioned by Freedom from Torture, an NGO, some parts violate international law. That is unlikely to stop the bill passing, but may delay it in the House of Lords. And in any case, there is little evidence that the harsh asylum policies influence migrants’ choices. An assessment of the draft bill by the Home Office concluded that evidence for the effectiveness of deterrence was “limited”. Researchers who interviewed migrants who crossed the Mediterranean during the crisis of 2015 came to a similar conclusion.

【11】Reducing the toll of lives will take co-operation between Britain and France. On November 24th Mr Johnson and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, agreed to work together more closely and do “everything possible” to catch the smuggler gangs. “France will not let the Channel become a graveyard,” Mr Macron declared.

【12】But co-operation requires trust, which is in short supply. The two countries are embroiled in Brexit-related rows, notably over fishing permits. Mr Macron is fighting for re-election in April and needs to be seen standing up for national interests. After the drownings Mr Johnson expressed frustration at France’s failure to stop the beach launches, and reiterated a request to allow British police to patrol beaches in northern France, which has so far been refused. According to the Elysée, Mr Macron said the British should “stop exploiting a dreadful situation for political ends”.

【13】And the French authorities argue that they are already doing all they can to stop departures. So far this year 31,500 migrants have set off, they say, with 7,800 rescued and brought back to France. On November 23rd they arrested 15 people connected to a people-smuggling ring that had brought 250 migrants across the Channel for a fee of €6,000 ($6,700).

【14】Seen from countries such as Greece and Italy, which are more accessible from some of the world’s trouble spots, the numbers of migrants arriving on Britain’s beaches is tiny. And as the weather grows colder and the seas choppier, the cross-Channel flow is likely to subside. But at least ten migrants have died in the past few weeks, not counting the latest tragedy. The government, already keenly aware of the likely electoral cost of a resurgence in the spring, has been reminded that failing to stop the crossings has a human cost, too.